Ch1. Introduction & Revision: (2 hours) From Random Variables to Stochastic Processes; Revision on Probability
Measures, Random Variables, Random Vectors, Expectations, Variance, Independence; General Definition for
Stochastic Processes; State Space; Time Parameter; For Types of Stochastic Processes.
Ch2. Conditional Expectation: (6 hours) Conditional Probability and Conditional Expectation for Discrete case;
Conditional Probability and Conditional Expectation for Continuous case; Calculating Expectation by conditioning;
Calculating Probability by Conditioning.
Ch3: Discrete Time Markov Chains: (12 hours) Markov Property; Definition of Discrete Time Markov Chains;
Examples; One-Step Transition Probabilities; N-Step Transition Probabilities; Chapman-Kolmogorov Equations;
Absolute Distributions; Classification of States; Irreducibility; Definition and Criteria for Recurrence and Transience;
Period; Positive Recurrence and Null-Recurrence; Ergodicity; Limiting Distributions; Stationary Distributions;
Examples, particularly Random Walks; Mean Time spent in Transient States.
Ch4: Poisson Processes: (12 hours) Exponential Distributions; Memory-less Property; Two Definitions of Poisson
Processes; Properties of Poisson Processes; Arriving Times and Inter-Arriving Times; Compound Poisson Processes;
Applications.
CH5: Introduction to Continuous Time Markov Chains: (4 hours) Definition of Continuous Time Markov Chains;
Examples; Chapman-Kolmogorov Equations; Rate Matrix; Classification of States; The Kolmogorov Backward
Equations; The Kolmogorov Forward Equations; Limiting and Stationary Distributions.
Ch6: Brownian Motion Processes (BMP): (12 hours) Definition of BMP ; Properties of BMP; Concepts; Absolute
Distributions of BMP; Hitting Times of BMP; Transformation of BMP; Geometric Brownian Motion; Application of
BMP in Finance: Option Pricing and The Black-Scholes Formula.
指定教材: Sheldon M. Ross, Introduction to Probability Models, 11
th
Ed. Elsevier (Singapore), 2011.
推荐参考资料: Geoffrey R. Grimmett and David R. Stirzaker, Probability and Random Processes 3
rd
Ed. Oxford
University Press, 2001
Required: Sheldon M. Ross, Introduction to Probability Models, 11
th
Ed. Elsevier (Singapore), 2011.
Recommended: Geoffrey R. Grimmett and David R. Stirzaker, Probability and Random Processes 3
rd
Ed. Oxford
University Press, 2001